Match Analysis

Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets

AUS A-League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

32%
34%
34%
Melbourne Victory winDrawNewcastle Jets win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game1.20
0.00Avg goals scored1.00
1.00Avg goals conceded1.00
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Melbourne Victory xG

Expected goals

1.1

Newcastle Jets xG

47%

Both Teams to Score

40%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

11

13%

10

12%

01

11%

00

10%

21

8%

12

7%

Home

Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory

LWDDL

PPG

1.00

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Newcastle Jets

Newcastle Jets

LDWDD

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.0

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Melbourne Victoryall timeNewcastle Jets
1W
3D
2W
17 Apr 26
Melbourne Victory22Newcastle Jets
24 Oct 25
Newcastle Jets52Melbourne Victory
4 May 25
Melbourne Victory11Newcastle Jets
8 Feb 25
Newcastle Jets30Melbourne Victory
3 Feb 24
Newcastle Jets11Melbourne Victory
29 Oct 23
Melbourne Victory53Newcastle Jets

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?

Newcastle Jets is favored with a 34% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Melbourne Victory's current form?

Melbourne Victory have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 A-League meetings, Melbourne Victory won 1, drew 3, and Newcastle Jets won 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Melbourne Victory Win32%
Draw34%
Newcastle Jets Win34%
BTTS47%
Over 2.540%

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