Wellington Phoenix Fc vs Melbourne Victory
🇦🇺 A-League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.8
Wellington Phoenix FC xG
Expected goals
1.9
Melbourne Victory xG
47%
Both Teams to Score
51%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
13%
0–2
12%
1–1
10%
1–2
10%
0–3
8%
0–0
7%
Home
Wellington Phoenix FC
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
0.9 / 1.8
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Melbourne Victory
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
1.5 / 1.1
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 10 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Wellington Phoenix Fc vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory is favored with a 58% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Wellington Phoenix Fc's current form?
Wellington Phoenix Fc have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 10 A-League meetings, Wellington Phoenix Fc won 3, drew 2, and Melbourne Victory won 5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 10 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from A-League