Match Analysis

Atlético-MGvsChapecoense

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

80%
13%
7%
Atlético-MG winDrawChapecoense win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game1.00
1.44Avg goals scored0.98
0.84Avg goals conceded2.10
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.6

Atlético-MG xG

Expected goals

0.6

Chapecoense xG

42%

Both Teams to Score

62%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–0

14%

3–0

12%

1–0

11%

2–1

8%

4–0

8%

3–1

7%

Home

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

WDWWL

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.4 / 0.8

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Chapecoense

Chapecoense

DDLWL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.0 / 2.1

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 80% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético-MG's current form?

Atlético-MG have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (14% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético-MG Win80%
Draw13%
Chapecoense Win7%
BTTS42%
Over 2.562%