Match Analysis

Atlético-MGvsCorinthians

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

71%
19%
10%
Atlético-MG winDrawCorinthians win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game0.40
1.44Avg goals scored1.02
0.84Avg goals conceded1.65
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)0–2–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.1

Atlético-MG xG

Expected goals

0.6

Corinthians xG

40%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–0

15%

1–0

14%

3–0

10%

2–1

9%

1–1

8%

0–0

7%

Home

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

WDWWL

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.4 / 0.8

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Corinthians

Corinthians

DLLLD

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.6

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético-MG vs Corinthians?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 71% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético-MG's current form?

Atlético-MG have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético-MG Win71%
Draw19%
Corinthians Win10%
BTTS40%
Over 2.551%