Match Analysis

Atlético-MGvsFluminense

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

52%
24%
24%
Atlético-MG winDrawFluminense win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game1.80
1.44Avg goals scored1.76
0.84Avg goals conceded1.41
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.8

Atlético-MG xG

Expected goals

1.1

Fluminense xG

56%

Both Teams to Score

55%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

1–0

10%

2–1

10%

2–0

9%

0–0

6%

0–1

6%

Home

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

WDWWL

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.4 / 0.8

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Fluminense

Fluminense

WLLWW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.4

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético-MG vs Fluminense?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético-MG's current form?

Atlético-MG have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético-MG Win52%
Draw24%
Fluminense Win24%
BTTS56%
Over 2.555%