Match Analysis

Atlético-MGvsVasco da Gama

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

43%
25%
32%
Atlético-MG winDrawVasco da Gama win

Key Stats

2.20Points per game2.20
1.53Avg goals scored1.66
1.02Avg goals conceded1.15
3–2–0Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Atlético-MG xG

Expected goals

1.3

Vasco da Gama xG

57%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

1–0

9%

2–1

9%

0–1

8%

1–2

8%

2–0

7%

Home

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

DWDWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.0

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Away

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama

DWWWD

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.1

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético-MG vs Vasco da Gama?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético-MG's current form?

Atlético-MG have recorded 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético-MG Win43%
Draw25%
Vasco da Gama Win32%
BTTS57%
Over 2.553%