Match Analysis

BahiavsAtlético-MG

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

35%
26%
39%
Bahia winDrawAtlético-MG win

Key Stats

2.40Points per game2.00
1.77Avg goals scored1.44
1.26Avg goals conceded0.84
4–0–1Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Bahia xG

Expected goals

1.4

Atlético-MG xG

55%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

0–1

9%

1–0

9%

1–2

9%

2–1

8%

0–0

7%

Home

Bahia

Bahia

LWWWW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Away

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

WDWWL

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.4 / 0.8

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bahia vs Atlético-MG?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bahia's current form?

Bahia have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bahia Win35%
Draw26%
Atlético-MG Win39%
BTTS55%
Over 2.551%