Match Analysis

BahiavsSão Paulo

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

66%
20%
14%
Bahia winDrawSão Paulo win

Key Stats

2.40Points per game1.00
1.77Avg goals scored0.84
1.26Avg goals conceded1.30
4–0–1Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Bahia xG

Expected goals

0.8

São Paulo xG

48%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

12%

2–0

12%

1–1

10%

2–1

10%

3–0

8%

0–0

6%

Home

Bahia

Bahia

LWWWW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Away

São Paulo

São Paulo

DLWDL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.3

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bahia vs São Paulo?

Bahia is favored with a 66% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bahia's current form?

Bahia have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bahia Win66%
Draw20%
São Paulo Win14%
BTTS48%
Over 2.553%