Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2
Bahia xG
Expected goals
0.8
São Paulo xG
48%
Both Teams to Score
53%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
12%
2–0
12%
1–1
10%
2–1
10%
3–0
8%
0–0
6%
Home
Bahia
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.3
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
São Paulo
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
0.8 / 1.3
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Bahia vs São Paulo?
Bahia is favored with a 66% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Bahia's current form?
Bahia have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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