Match Analysis

GrêmiovsBahia

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

22%
22%
56%
Grêmio winDrawBahia win

Key Stats

0.40Points per game2.40
0.98Avg goals scored1.77
1.40Avg goals conceded1.26
0–2–3Record (W–D–L)4–0–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.1

Grêmio xG

Expected goals

1.9

Bahia xG

57%

Both Teams to Score

58%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

1–2

10%

0–1

9%

0–2

9%

0–3

6%

1–3

6%

Home

Grêmio

Grêmio

DDLLL

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.4

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Away

Bahia

Bahia

LWWWW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Grêmio vs Bahia?

Bahia is favored with a 56% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Grêmio's current form?

Grêmio have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Grêmio Win22%
Draw22%
Bahia Win56%
BTTS57%
Over 2.558%