Match Analysis

GrêmiovsCruzeiro

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

16%
20%
64%
Grêmio winDrawCruzeiro win

Key Stats

0.40Points per game1.40
0.98Avg goals scored1.93
1.40Avg goals conceded1.07
0–2–3Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.9

Grêmio xG

Expected goals

2.1

Cruzeiro xG

52%

Both Teams to Score

58%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–2

11%

0–1

10%

1–2

10%

1–1

9%

0–3

8%

1–3

7%

Home

Grêmio

Grêmio

DDLLL

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.4

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Away

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro

DWLWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.9 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?

Cruzeiro is favored with a 64% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Grêmio's current form?

Grêmio have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–2 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Grêmio Win16%
Draw20%
Cruzeiro Win64%
BTTS52%
Over 2.558%