Match Analysis

São PaulovsCorinthians

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

40%
29%
31%
São Paulo winDrawCorinthians win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game0.40
0.84Avg goals scored1.02
1.30Avg goals conceded1.65
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)0–2–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

São Paulo xG

Expected goals

1

Corinthians xG

44%

Both Teams to Score

38%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

13%

1–1

13%

0–0

11%

0–1

11%

2–0

8%

2–1

8%

Home

São Paulo

São Paulo

DLWDL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.3

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Corinthians

Corinthians

DLLLD

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.6

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win São Paulo vs Corinthians?

São Paulo is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is São Paulo's current form?

São Paulo have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

São Paulo Win40%
Draw29%
Corinthians Win31%
BTTS44%
Over 2.538%