Match Analysis

São PaulovsVasco da Gama

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

19%
25%
56%
São Paulo winDrawVasco da Gama win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game2.20
0.84Avg goals scored1.66
1.30Avg goals conceded1.15
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.8

São Paulo xG

Expected goals

1.6

Vasco da Gama xG

44%

Both Teams to Score

43%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

15%

0–2

12%

1–1

12%

0–0

9%

1–2

9%

1–0

7%

Home

São Paulo

São Paulo

DLWDL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.3

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama

DWWWD

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.1

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

Vasco da Gama is favored with a 56% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is São Paulo's current form?

São Paulo have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

São Paulo Win19%
Draw25%
Vasco da Gama Win56%
BTTS44%
Over 2.543%