Match Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1 Fc Union Berlin

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

87%
8%
5%
Bayer Leverkusen winDraw1. FC Union Berlin win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game1.40
2.66Avg goals scored1.26
1.63Avg goals conceded3.33
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

4

Bayer Leverkusen xG

Expected goals

1.1

1. FC Union Berlin xG

65%

Both Teams to Score

88%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

30

7%

31

7%

40

7%

41

7%

51

6%

20

5%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $21K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Bayer Leverkusen
87%
92%
-5%
Draw
8%
1. FC Union Berlin
5%
8%
-3%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

DWLWD

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

2.7 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

1. FC Union Berlin

1. FC Union Berlin

LLDWW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.3 / 3.3

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1 Fc Union Berlin?

Bayer Leverkusen is favored with a 87% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bayer Leverkusen's current form?

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Bayer Leverkusen Win87%
Draw8%
1. FC Union Berlin Win5%
BTTS65%
Over 2.588%

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