Match Analysis

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

36%
33%
31%
Bayern Munich winDrawBorussia Dortmund win

Key Stats

2.60Points per game3.00
2.21Avg goals scored2.70
0.67Avg goals conceded0.66
4–1–0Record (W–D–L)5–0–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.9

Bayern Munich xG

Expected goals

0.9

Borussia Dortmund xG

35%

Both Teams to Score

27%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

00

17%

01

15%

10

15%

11

13%

02

7%

20

7%

Home

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich

WWDWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

2.2 / 0.7

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Away

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

WWWWW

PPG

3.00

Avg goals

2.7 / 0.7

Last 5

5W 0D 0L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Bayern Munichall timeBorussia Dortmund
3W
2D
1W
28 Feb 26
Borussia Dortmund23Bayern Munich
18 Oct 25
Bayern Munich21Borussia Dortmund
12 Apr 25
Bayern Munich22Borussia Dortmund
30 Nov 24
Borussia Dortmund11Bayern Munich
30 Mar 24
Bayern Munich02Borussia Dortmund
4 Nov 23
Borussia Dortmund04Bayern Munich

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?

Bayern Munich is favored with a 36% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bayern Munich's current form?

Bayern Munich have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Bayern Munich won 3, drew 2, and Borussia Dortmund won 1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (17% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Bayern Munich Win36%
Draw33%
Borussia Dortmund Win31%
BTTS35%
Over 2.527%