Match Analysis

Fc Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

60%
12%
28%
FC Augsburg winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

Key Stats

2.40Points per game1.40
3.27Avg goals scored2.90
0.78Avg goals conceded1.38
4–0–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.7

FC Augsburg xG

Expected goals

1.2

Bayer Leverkusen xG

65%

Both Teams to Score

75%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

21

9%

31

8%

11

7%

20

7%

30

7%

10

5%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $303K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
FC Augsburg
60%
61%
FAIR
Draw
12%
Bayer Leverkusen
28%
39%
-11%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg

WWWLW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

3.3 / 0.8

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Away

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

WLWDL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.9 / 1.4

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Fc Augsburgall timeBayer Leverkusen
2W
4W
18 Apr 26
Bayer Leverkusen12FC Augsburg
6 Dec 25
FC Augsburg20Bayer Leverkusen
26 Apr 25
Bayer Leverkusen20FC Augsburg
14 Dec 24
FC Augsburg02Bayer Leverkusen
18 May 24
Bayer Leverkusen21FC Augsburg
13 Jan 24
FC Augsburg01Bayer Leverkusen

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Fc Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

FC Augsburg is favored with a 60% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Fc Augsburg's current form?

Fc Augsburg have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.7.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Fc Augsburg won 2, drew 0, and Bayer Leverkusen won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

FC Augsburg Win60%
Draw12%
Bayer Leverkusen Win28%
BTTS65%
Over 2.575%

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