Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.3
Hamburg SV xG
Expected goals
4
Mainz xG
71%
Both Teams to Score
90%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–3
7%
1–4
7%
1–5
6%
0–3
5%
0–4
5%
1–2
5%
Home
Hamburg SV
PPG
0.80
Last 5
1W 1D 3L
Away
Mainz
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.0 / 1.1
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Hamburg Sv vs Mainz?
Mainz is favored with a 67% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Hamburg Sv's current form?
Hamburg Sv have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Bundesliga meetings, Hamburg Sv won 1, drew 1, and Mainz won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–3 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 90%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Bundesliga