Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.3
Hamburg SV xG
Expected goals
0.4
Mainz xG
9%
Both Teams to Score
3%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–0
50%
0–1
20%
1–0
15%
1–1
6%
0–2
4%
2–0
2%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $139K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Hamburg SV
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
0.5 / 1.9
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Mainz
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
0.4 / 0.4
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Hamburg Sv vs Mainz?
Hamburg SV is favored with a 25% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Hamburg Sv's current form?
Hamburg Sv have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Bundesliga meetings, Hamburg Sv won 1, drew 1, and Mainz won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (50% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 9%. Over 2.5 goals: 3%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Bundesliga