โšก Match Analysis

Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Bundesliga ยท Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

27%
26%
47%
Mainz winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.40
1.57Avg goals scored1.67
1.63Avg goals conceded1.40
2โ€“1โ€“2Record (Wโ€“Dโ€“L)2โ€“1โ€“2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Mainz xG

Expected goals

1.6

Bayer Leverkusen xG

62%

Both Teams to Score

60%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1โ€“1

11%

1โ€“2

9%

2โ€“1

8%

0โ€“1

7%

1โ€“0

7%

0โ€“2

6%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

WLWLD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

DLWWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.4

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head ยท Last 6 meetings

Mainzall timeBayer Leverkusen
2D
4W
28 Feb 26
Bayer Leverkusen1โ€“1Mainz
18 Oct 25
Mainz3โ€“4Bayer Leverkusen
17 May 25
Mainz2โ€“2Bayer Leverkusen
14 Jan 25
Bayer Leverkusen1โ€“0Mainz
23 Feb 24
Bayer Leverkusen2โ€“1Mainz
30 Sep 23
Mainz0โ€“3Bayer Leverkusen

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayer Leverkusen is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Mainz won 0, drew 2, and Bayer Leverkusen won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1โ€“1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.

โšก Poisson model ยท attack & defense ratings ยท last 5 matches ยท H2H 6 meetings ยท home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard โ†’

Match Odds

Mainz Win27%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen Win47%
BTTS62%
Over 2.560%

Find prediction markets โ†’

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi

๐Ÿ“Š