Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.4
Mainz xG
Expected goals
3.3
SC Freiburg xG
73%
Both Teams to Score
85%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–3
8%
1–2
7%
1–4
6%
0–2
5%
0–3
5%
2–2
5%
Home
Mainz
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
2.7 / 2.4
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
SC Freiburg
PPG
2.20
Avg goals
2.7 / 0.9
Last 5
3W 2D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Mainz vs SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg is favored with a 74% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Mainz's current form?
Mainz have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–3 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from Bundesliga