Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.7
Mainz xG
Expected goals
0.3
Werder Bremen xG
13%
Both Teams to Score
8%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–0
37%
1–0
26%
0–1
11%
2–0
9%
1–1
8%
2–1
3%
Home
Mainz
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
0.5 / 0.4
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Werder Bremen
PPG
0.80
Avg goals
0.3 / 2.0
Last 5
1W 1D 3L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Mainz is favored with a 33% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Mainz's current form?
Mainz have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Mainz won 1, drew 1, and Werder Bremen won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (37% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 13%. Over 2.5 goals: 8%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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