Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.9
RB Leipzig xG
Expected goals
0.3
Hamburg SV xG
25%
Both Teams to Score
79%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
15%
4–0
14%
2–0
11%
5–0
11%
1–0
6%
3–1
4%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $23K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
RB Leipzig
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.9 / 1.8
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Hamburg SV
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
0.1 / 3.4
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Rb Leipzig vs Hamburg Sv?
RB Leipzig is favored with a 94% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Rb Leipzig's current form?
Rb Leipzig have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.9.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 Bundesliga meetings, Rb Leipzig won 2, drew 0, and Hamburg Sv won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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