Match Analysis

Rb Leipzig vs Hamburg Sv

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

94%
3%
3%
RB Leipzig winDrawHamburg SV win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game1.40
1.87Avg goals scored0.08
1.77Avg goals conceded3.40
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

3.9

RB Leipzig xG

Expected goals

0.3

Hamburg SV xG

25%

Both Teams to Score

79%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

30

15%

40

14%

20

11%

50

11%

10

6%

31

4%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $23K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
RB Leipzig
94%
73%
+21%
Draw
3%
Hamburg SV
3%
27%
-24%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

LLWWL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.9 / 1.8

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Away

Hamburg SV

Hamburg SV

LLWDW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.1 / 3.4

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings

Rb Leipzigall timeHamburg Sv
2W
1 Mar 26
Hamburg SV12RB Leipzig
18 Oct 25
RB Leipzig21Hamburg SV

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Rb Leipzig vs Hamburg Sv?

RB Leipzig is favored with a 94% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Rb Leipzig's current form?

Rb Leipzig have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.9.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 2 Bundesliga meetings, Rb Leipzig won 2, drew 0, and Hamburg Sv won 0.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (15% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

RB Leipzig Win94%
Draw3%
Hamburg SV Win3%
BTTS25%
Over 2.579%

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