Match Analysis

RB LeipzigvsMainz

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

83%
9%
8%
RB Leipzig winDrawMainz win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.60
3.30Avg goals scored2.73
0.91Avg goals conceded2.35
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

4

RB Leipzig xG

Expected goals

1.3

Mainz xG

71%

Both Teams to Score

90%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

3–1

7%

4–1

7%

5–1

6%

2–1

5%

3–0

5%

4–0

5%

Home

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

DWLWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

3.3 / 0.9

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Mainz

Mainz

DWLWD

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

2.7 / 2.4

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win RB Leipzig vs Mainz?

RB Leipzig is favored with a 83% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is RB Leipzig's current form?

RB Leipzig have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 90%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

RB Leipzig Win83%
Draw9%
Mainz Win8%
BTTS71%
Over 2.590%