Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.1
Liverpool xG
Expected goals
1.3
Atletico Madrid xG
49%
Both Teams to Score
43%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
13%
0–1
12%
1–0
10%
0–0
9%
0–2
8%
1–2
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $765K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Liverpool
PPG
1.20
Last 5
1W 3D 1L
Away
Atletico Madrid
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid is favored with a 38% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Liverpool's current form?
Liverpool have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.
PPG fallback model · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Champions League