Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.2
Napoli xG
Expected goals
1
Arsenal xG
44%
Both Teams to Score
38%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
13%
1–1
13%
0–0
11%
0–1
11%
2–0
8%
2–1
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $4.3M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Napoli
PPG
1.80
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Arsenal
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
1.0 / 1.0
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Napoli vs Arsenal?
Napoli is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Napoli's current form?
Napoli have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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