Match Analysis

Bali United vs Madura United Fc

IDN Liga 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

43%
19%
38%
Bali United winDrawMadura United FC win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.80
1.81Avg goals scored1.50
1.40Avg goals conceded1.23
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Bali United xG

Expected goals

1.3

Madura United FC xG

57%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

11

12%

10

9%

21

9%

01

8%

12

8%

20

7%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $2.6M volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Bali United
43%
0%
+43%
Draw
19%
Madura United FC
38%
100%
-62%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Bali United

Bali United

WWLLW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.4

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Madura United FC

WLLWW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 5 meetings

Bali Unitedall timeMadura United Fc
2W
3W
5 May 26
Madura United FC20Bali United
30 Aug 25
Bali United10Madura United FC
17 May 25
Bali United02Madura United FC
20 Dec 24
Madura United FC21Bali United
23 Nov 23
Madura United FC12Bali United

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bali United vs Madura United Fc?

Bali United is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bali United's current form?

Bali United have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 5 Liga 1 meetings, Bali United won 2, drew 0, and Madura United Fc won 3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 5 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Bali United Win43%
Draw19%
Madura United FC Win38%
BTTS57%
Over 2.553%

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