Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United
IDN Liga 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.4
Persebaya Surabaya xG
Expected goals
1.8
Bali United xG
81%
Both Teams to Score
89%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–1
7%
2–1
6%
3–2
6%
4–1
6%
2–2
5%
4–2
5%
Home
Persebaya Surabaya
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
4.1 / 0.0
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Away
Bali United
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.2
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United?
Persebaya Surabaya is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Persebaya Surabaya's current form?
Persebaya Surabaya have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Liga 1 meetings, Persebaya Surabaya won 2, drew 0, and Bali United won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 81%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Liga 1