Persita vs Persebaya Surabaya
IDN Liga 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.6
Persita xG
Expected goals
4
Persebaya Surabaya xG
44%
Both Teams to Score
84%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–3
11%
0–4
11%
0–5
9%
0–2
8%
1–3
6%
1–4
6%
Home
Persita
PPG
0.80
Avg goals
0.5 / 1.7
Last 5
1W 1D 3L
Away
Persebaya Surabaya
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
3.8 / 0.0
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Persita vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Persebaya Surabaya is favored with a 85% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Persita's current form?
Persita have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.6.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Liga 1 meetings, Persita won 0, drew 2, and Persebaya Surabaya won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Liga 1