⚡ Match Analysis
Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus
🇯🇵 J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
29%
24%
47%
Cerezo Osaka winDrawNagoya Grampus win
Key Stats
1.80Points per game2.40
1.19Avg goals scored1.78
1.07Avg goals conceded1.18
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)4–0–1
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.2
Cerezo Osaka xG
Expected goals
1.4
Nagoya Grampus xG
53%
Both Teams to Score
48%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
12%
0–1
10%
1–0
9%
1–2
9%
0–0
7%
0–2
7%
Home
Cerezo Osaka
WLWWL
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.1
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Nagoya Grampus
WWLWW
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.2
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 5 meetings
Cerezo Osakaall timeNagoya Grampus
1W
1D
3W
4 Apr 26
Nagoya Grampus3–0Cerezo Osaka
4 Oct 25
Nagoya Grampus2–1Cerezo Osaka
8 Mar 25
Cerezo Osaka1–1Nagoya Grampus
21 Apr 24
Nagoya Grampus2–1Cerezo Osaka
26 Aug 23
Cerezo Osaka3–1Nagoya Grampus
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?
Nagoya Grampus is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Cerezo Osaka's current form?
Cerezo Osaka have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 5 J1 League meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 1, drew 1, and Nagoya Grampus won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 5 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
Cerezo Osaka Win29%
Draw24%
Nagoya Grampus Win47%
BTTS53%
Over 2.548%
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Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
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