⚡ Match Analysis
Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka
🇯🇵 J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
31%
20%
49%
Fagiano Okayama winDrawCerezo Osaka win
Key Stats
1.80Points per game1.80
1.18Avg goals scored1.19
1.51Avg goals conceded1.07
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)3–0–2
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.1
Fagiano Okayama xG
Expected goals
1.4
Cerezo Osaka xG
50%
Both Teams to Score
46%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
13%
0–1
11%
1–0
9%
1–2
9%
0–0
8%
0–2
8%
Home
Fagiano Okayama
LWWWL
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.5
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Cerezo Osaka
WLWWL
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.1
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 3 meetings
Fagiano Okayamaall timeCerezo Osaka
1W
2W
18 Mar 26
Cerezo Osaka1–2Fagiano Okayama
18 Oct 25
Fagiano Okayama1–2Cerezo Osaka
2 Apr 25
Cerezo Osaka2–1Fagiano Okayama
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka?
Cerezo Osaka is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Fagiano Okayama's current form?
Fagiano Okayama have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 3 J1 League meetings, Fagiano Okayama won 1, drew 0, and Cerezo Osaka won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 3 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
Fagiano Okayama Win31%
Draw20%
Cerezo Osaka Win49%
BTTS50%
Over 2.546%
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Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
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