Match Analysis

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka

JPN J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

72%
24%
4%
Machida Zelvia winDrawAvispa Fukuoka win

Key Stats

2.60Points per game1.40
2.98Avg goals scored1.58
0.68Avg goals conceded1.35
4–1–0Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

3.2

Machida Zelvia xG

Expected goals

0.8

Avispa Fukuoka xG

53%

Both Teams to Score

76%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

30

10%

20

9%

21

8%

31

8%

40

8%

10

6%

Home

Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia

WWWWD

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

3.0 / 0.7

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Away

Avispa Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka

LWLWD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 3 meetings

Machida Zelviaall timeAvispa Fukuoka
1W
2D
18 Oct 25
Machida Zelvia00Avispa Fukuoka
29 Mar 25
Avispa Fukuoka22Machida Zelvia
14 Sep 24
Avispa Fukuoka03Machida Zelvia

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Machida Zelvia is favored with a 72% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Machida Zelvia's current form?

Machida Zelvia have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.2.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 3 J1 League meetings, Machida Zelvia won 1, drew 2, and Avispa Fukuoka won 0.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 3 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Machida Zelvia Win72%
Draw24%
Avispa Fukuoka Win4%
BTTS53%
Over 2.576%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi