Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
JPN J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.8
Nagoya Grampus xG
Expected goals
3.2
Machida Zelvia xG
53%
Both Teams to Score
76%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–3
10%
0–2
9%
0–4
8%
1–2
8%
1–3
8%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $28K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Nagoya Grampus
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.9
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Machida Zelvia
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
2.5 / 0.8
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 4 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?
Machida Zelvia is favored with a 81% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Nagoya Grampus's current form?
Nagoya Grampus have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 4 J1 League meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 0, drew 1, and Machida Zelvia won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 4 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from J1 League