⚡ Match Analysis
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
🇯🇵 J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
22%
18%
60%
Nagoya Grampus winDrawMachida Zelvia win
Key Stats
1.80Points per game2.40
1.83Avg goals scored1.17
1.87Avg goals conceded0.80
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)4–0–1
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.3
Nagoya Grampus xG
Expected goals
1.7
Machida Zelvia xG
59%
Both Teams to Score
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
1–2
9%
0–1
8%
0–2
7%
2–1
7%
1–0
6%
Home
Nagoya Grampus
LLWWW
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.9
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Machida Zelvia
WLWWW
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.2 / 0.8
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 3 meetings
Nagoya Grampusall timeMachida Zelvia
3W
30 Nov 25
Machida Zelvia3–1Nagoya Grampus
2 Mar 25
Nagoya Grampus1–2Machida Zelvia
2 Mar 24
Nagoya Grampus0–1Machida Zelvia
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?
Machida Zelvia is favored with a 60% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Nagoya Grampus's current form?
Nagoya Grampus have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 3 J1 League meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 0, drew 0, and Machida Zelvia won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 3 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
Nagoya Grampus Win22%
Draw18%
Machida Zelvia Win60%
BTTS59%
Over 2.558%
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Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
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