⚡ Match Analysis
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
🇯🇵 J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
32%
18%
50%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima winDrawNagoya Grampus win
Key Stats
1.20Points per game2.40
1.24Avg goals scored1.78
1.23Avg goals conceded1.18
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)4–0–1
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG
Expected goals
1.7
Nagoya Grampus xG
59%
Both Teams to Score
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
1–2
9%
0–1
8%
0–2
7%
2–1
7%
1–0
6%
Home
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
LLLWW
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.2
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Nagoya Grampus
WWLWW
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.2
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 5 meetings
Sanfrecce Hiroshimaall timeNagoya Grampus
2W
3W
18 Mar 26
Nagoya Grampus2–1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
20 Apr 25
Nagoya Grampus2–1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
17 Aug 24
Nagoya Grampus1–2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 May 24
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2–3Nagoya Grampus
30 Sep 23
Sanfrecce Hiroshima3–1Nagoya Grampus
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?
Nagoya Grampus is favored with a 50% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Sanfrecce Hiroshima's current form?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 5 J1 League meetings, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 2, drew 0, and Nagoya Grampus won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 5 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win32%
Draw18%
Nagoya Grampus Win50%
BTTS59%
Over 2.558%
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Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
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