Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Belgium xG
Expected goals
2.2
Italy xG
73%
Both Teams to Score
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
8%
1–2
8%
2–2
7%
1–3
6%
2–1
6%
0–2
5%
Home
Belgium
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.5 / 1.3
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Italy
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.0 / 1.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Belgium vs Italy?
Italy is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Belgium's current form?
Belgium have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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