Match Analysis

BulgariavsIceland

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

6%
21%
73%
Bulgaria winDrawIceland win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.60
0.77Avg goals scored1.73
1.23Avg goals conceded0.23
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.3

Bulgaria xG

Expected goals

1.7

Iceland xG

21%

Both Teams to Score

32%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

23%

0–2

20%

0–0

14%

0–3

11%

1–1

7%

1–2

6%

Home

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Iceland

Iceland

DWWDL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.7 / 0.2

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Iceland is favored with a 73% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bulgaria's current form?

Bulgaria have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (23% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 21%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bulgaria Win6%
Draw21%
Iceland Win73%
BTTS21%
Over 2.532%