Match Analysis

EstoniavsBulgaria

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

34%
50%
16%
Estonia winDrawBulgaria win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game0.60
0.49Avg goals scored0.77
0.23Avg goals conceded1.23
1–3–1Record (W–D–L)0–3–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.6

Estonia xG

Expected goals

0.3

Bulgaria xG

12%

Both Teams to Score

6%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–0

41%

1–0

24%

0–1

12%

1–1

7%

2–0

7%

0–2

2%

Home

Estonia

Estonia

DWDDL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.2

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Away

Bulgaria

Bulgaria

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Estonia is favored with a 34% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Estonia's current form?

Estonia have recorded 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (41% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 12%. Over 2.5 goals: 6%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Estonia Win34%
Draw50%
Bulgaria Win16%
BTTS12%
Over 2.56%