Match Analysis

Wales vs Denmark

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

41%
26%
33%
Wales winDrawDenmark win

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.4

Wales xG

Expected goals

1.3

Denmark xG

55%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

0–1

9%

1–0

9%

2–1

9%

1–2

8%

0–0

7%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $650K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Wales
41%
0%
+41%
Draw
26%
—
—
Denmark
33%
100%
-67%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Wales

No data

Away

Denmark

No data

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Wales vs Denmark?

Wales is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Form data unavailable — equal weighting applied

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Wales Win41%
Draw26%
Denmark Win33%
BTTS55%
Over 2.551%