Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
🇪🇸 La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.1
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected goals
1.7
Real Madrid xG
55%
Both Teams to Score
53%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
0–1
10%
1–2
10%
0–2
9%
1–0
7%
0–0
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $117K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Atletico Madrid
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.0
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid is favored with a 51% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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