Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model4
Barcelona xG
Expected goals
0.5
Athletic Club xG
39%
Both Teams to Score
83%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
12%
4–0
12%
2–0
9%
5–0
9%
3–1
6%
4–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $1.9M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Barcelona
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
3.4 / 0.6
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Athletic Club
PPG
0.20
Avg goals
1.2 / 2.6
Last 5
0W 1D 4L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Athletic Club?
Barcelona is favored with a 89% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Barcelona's current form?
Barcelona have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Barcelona won 5, drew 1, and Athletic Club won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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