Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3
Barcelona xG
Expected goals
0.3
Rayo Vallecano xG
25%
Both Teams to Score
64%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–0
17%
3–0
17%
4–0
12%
1–0
11%
5–0
7%
2–1
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $1.2M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Barcelona
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
2.9 / 0.4
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Rayo Vallecano
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.2
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Barcelona is favored with a 83% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Barcelona's current form?
Barcelona have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Barcelona won 4, drew 2, and Rayo Vallecano won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (17% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from La Liga