Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.1
Barcelona xG
Expected goals
1.3
Real Madrid xG
69%
Both Teams to Score
81%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
8%
3–1
8%
2–0
6%
3–0
6%
4–1
6%
1–1
5%
Model vs Market
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Barcelona
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
4.2 / 0.9
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.2 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Barcelona is favored with a 74% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Barcelona's current form?
Barcelona have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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