Match Analysis

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

39%
36%
25%
Celta Vigo winDrawOsasuna win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game0.20
0.74Avg goals scored0.45
0.47Avg goals conceded0.93
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)0–1–4

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.6

Celta Vigo xG

Expected goals

0.3

Osasuna xG

12%

Both Teams to Score

6%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

00

41%

10

24%

01

12%

11

7%

20

7%

02

2%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $1.0M volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Celta Vigo
39%
50%
-11%
Draw
36%
Osasuna
25%
50%
-25%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo

DWDLW

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

0.7 / 0.5

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Osasuna

Osasuna

DLLLL

PPG

0.20

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.9

Last 5

0W 1D 4L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Celta Vigoall timeOsasuna
3W
3W
6 Feb 26
Celta Vigo12Osasuna
26 Oct 25
Osasuna23Celta Vigo
21 Feb 25
Celta Vigo10Osasuna
1 Sep 24
Osasuna32Celta Vigo
4 Feb 24
Osasuna03Celta Vigo
13 Aug 23
Celta Vigo02Osasuna

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Celta Vigo is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Celta Vigo's current form?

Celta Vigo have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.6.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Celta Vigo won 3, drew 0, and Osasuna won 3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (41% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 12%. Over 2.5 goals: 6%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Celta Vigo Win39%
Draw36%
Osasuna Win25%
BTTS12%
Over 2.56%

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