Match Analysis

MálagavsReal Sociedad

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

17%
23%
60%
Málaga winDrawReal Sociedad win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.40
0.56Avg goals scored1.72
1.55Avg goals conceded1.91
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.8

Málaga xG

Expected goals

1.7

Real Sociedad xG

45%

Both Teams to Score

46%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

0–1

14%

0–2

12%

1–1

11%

1–2

9%

0–0

8%

0–3

7%

Home

Málaga

Málaga

DLLDD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.6 / 1.5

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

DWLLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.9

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Málaga vs Real Sociedad?

Real Sociedad is favored with a 60% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Málaga's current form?

Málaga have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (14% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Málaga Win17%
Draw23%
Real Sociedad Win60%
BTTS45%
Over 2.546%