Match Analysis

Málaga vs Villarreal

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

41%
26%
33%
Málaga winDrawVillarreal win

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.4

Málaga xG

Expected goals

1.3

Villarreal xG

55%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

11

12%

01

9%

10

9%

21

9%

12

8%

00

7%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $131K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Málaga
41%
26%
+15%
Draw
26%
Villarreal
33%
74%
-41%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Málaga

No data

Away

Villarreal

No data

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Málaga vs Villarreal?

Málaga is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Form data unavailable — equal weighting applied

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Málaga Win41%
Draw26%
Villarreal Win33%
BTTS55%
Over 2.551%