Rayo Vallecanovs
Atlético Madrid
ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.1
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected goals
1.7
Atlético Madrid xG
55%
Both Teams to Score
53%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
0–1
10%
1–2
10%
0–2
9%
1–0
7%
0–0
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $1.0M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Rayo Vallecano
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.2 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Atlético Madrid
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.7 / 0.8
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid is favored with a 51% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Rayo Vallecano's current form?
Rayo Vallecano have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 12 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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