Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model4
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
1
Rayo Vallecano xG
62%
Both Teams to Score
88%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–0
7%
3–1
7%
4–0
7%
4–1
7%
5–0
6%
5–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $1.5M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
2.4 / 0.8
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Rayo Vallecano
PPG
0.80
Avg goals
1.9 / 2.4
Last 5
1W 1D 3L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid is favored with a 74% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Madrid won 2, drew 4, and Rayo Vallecano won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–0 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from La Liga