Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
🇪🇸 La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.4
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
1.1
Rayo Vallecano xG
50%
Both Teams to Score
46%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
13%
1–0
11%
0–1
9%
2–1
9%
0–0
8%
2–0
8%
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.0
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Rayo Vallecano
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
1.4 / 0.9
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Madrid won 2, drew 4, and Rayo Vallecano won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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