Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.5
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
0.6
Real Sociedad xG
41%
Both Teams to Score
60%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–0
14%
3–0
12%
1–0
11%
2–1
8%
1–1
7%
3–1
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $123K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.9 / 0.9
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Real Sociedad
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
0.9 / 1.5
Last 5
0W 3D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
Real Madrid is favored with a 84% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Madrid won 6, drew 0, and Real Sociedad won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (14% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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