โšก Match Analysis

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ La Liga ยท Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

79%
11%
10%
Real Madrid winDrawReal Sociedad win

Key Stats

2.40Points per game0.60
1.85Avg goals scored1.66
1.02Avg goals conceded1.89
4โ€“0โ€“1Record (Wโ€“Dโ€“L)0โ€“3โ€“2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.9

Real Madrid xG

Expected goals

1.2

Real Sociedad xG

66%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2โ€“1

8%

3โ€“1

8%

2โ€“0

7%

3โ€“0

7%

1โ€“1

6%

4โ€“1

6%

Model vs Market

Polymarket ยท $110K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Real Madrid
79%
9%
+70%
Draw
11%
โ€”
โ€”
Real Sociedad
10%
91%
-81%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

WWWLW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

1.9 / 1.0

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Away

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

DLDDL

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.9

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head ยท Last 6 meetings

Real Madridall timeReal Sociedad
6W
14 Feb 26
Real Madrid4โ€“1Real Sociedad
13 Sep 25
Real Sociedad1โ€“2Real Madrid
24 May 25
Real Madrid2โ€“0Real Sociedad
14 Sep 24
Real Sociedad0โ€“2Real Madrid
26 Apr 24
Real Sociedad0โ€“1Real Madrid
17 Sep 23
Real Madrid2โ€“1Real Sociedad

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

Real Madrid is favored with a 79% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Real Madrid's current form?

Real Madrid have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.9.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Madrid won 6, drew 0, and Real Sociedad won 0.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2โ€“1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

โšก Poisson model ยท attack & defense ratings ยท last 5 matches ยท H2H 6 meetings ยท home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

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Match Odds

Real Madrid Win79%
Draw11%
Real Sociedad Win10%
BTTS66%
Over 2.578%

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