Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
๐ช๐ธ La Liga ยท Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.9
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
1.2
Real Sociedad xG
66%
Both Teams to Score
78%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2โ1
8%
3โ1
8%
2โ0
7%
3โ0
7%
1โ1
6%
4โ1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket ยท $110K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.9 / 1.0
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Real Sociedad
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.9
Last 5
0W 3D 2L
Head-to-Head ยท Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
Real Madrid is favored with a 79% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.9.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Madrid won 6, drew 0, and Real Sociedad won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2โ1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.
โก Poisson model ยท attack & defense ratings ยท last 5 matches ยท H2H 6 meetings ยท home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets โ
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from La Liga