Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.3
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
1.5
Sevilla xG
70%
Both Teams to Score
73%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
9%
1–1
8%
2–2
7%
3–1
7%
1–2
6%
2–0
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $64K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
2.7 / 1.0
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Away
Sevilla
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
2.1 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid is favored with a 63% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Madrid won 5, drew 1, and Sevilla won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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