Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.2
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
1.6
Villarreal xG
77%
Both Teams to Score
86%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
7%
3–1
7%
3–2
6%
4–1
6%
2–2
5%
4–2
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $38K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
2.5 / 1.2
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Villarreal
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.9 / 1.7
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid is favored with a 69% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from La Liga