Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.7
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
1.1
Villarreal xG
65%
Both Teams to Score
86%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
3–1
8%
3–0
7%
4–1
7%
2–0
6%
2–1
6%
4–0
6%
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
2.7 / 1.0
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Away
Villarreal
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
1.6 / 1.6
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid is favored with a 83% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.7.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Madrid won 5, drew 1, and Villarreal won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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