Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.5
Real Sociedad xG
Expected goals
1.6
Atletico Madrid xG
62%
Both Teams to Score
60%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
1–2
9%
2–1
8%
0–1
7%
1–0
7%
0–2
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $337K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Real Sociedad
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Atletico Madrid
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Sociedad's current form?
Real Sociedad have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from La Liga