Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.5
Valencia xG
Expected goals
3.5
Barcelona xG
38%
Both Teams to Score
76%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–3
13%
0–2
11%
0–4
11%
0–5
8%
1–3
7%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $718K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Valencia
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
0.7 / 1.4
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Barcelona
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
3.5 / 0.8
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Valencia vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is favored with a 85% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Valencia's current form?
Valencia have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Valencia won 1, drew 1, and Barcelona won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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