Match Analysis

As Monaco vs Lille

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

16%
32%
52%
AS Monaco winDrawLille win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game2.00
1.37Avg goals scored1.53
0.86Avg goals conceded0.36
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.4

AS Monaco xG

Expected goals

0.9

Lille xG

20%

Both Teams to Score

14%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

00

27%

01

25%

02

11%

10

11%

11

10%

12

4%

Home

AS Monaco

AS Monaco

WWWLL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.4 / 0.9

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Lille

Lille

WLWDW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.5 / 0.4

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

As Monacoall timeLille
1W
1D
4W
10 May 26
AS Monaco01Lille
24 Aug 25
Lille10AS Monaco
22 Feb 25
Lille21AS Monaco
18 Oct 24
AS Monaco00Lille
24 Apr 24
AS Monaco10Lille
29 Oct 23
Lille20AS Monaco

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win As Monaco vs Lille?

Lille is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is As Monaco's current form?

As Monaco have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.4.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, As Monaco won 1, drew 1, and Lille won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (27% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 14%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

AS Monaco Win16%
Draw32%
Lille Win52%
BTTS20%
Over 2.514%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi