Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.4
AS Monaco xG
Expected goals
0.9
Lille xG
20%
Both Teams to Score
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–0
27%
0–1
25%
0–2
11%
1–0
11%
1–1
10%
1–2
4%
Home
AS Monaco
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.4 / 0.9
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Lille
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.5 / 0.4
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win As Monaco vs Lille?
Lille is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is As Monaco's current form?
As Monaco have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, As Monaco won 1, drew 1, and Lille won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (27% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 14%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Ligue 1